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See the thinking behind the thesis.
Our NVIDIA case study shows how we examine a widely discussed risk against the full business. Read the argument, inspect the evidence, and consider what could go wrong.
Research preview, not a past newsletter issue.
This historical excerpt comes from our NVIDIA case study, covering March 10, 2025–May 12, 2026. It illustrates our approach rather than a current recommendation.
The thesis
“The opportunity rested on a straightforward judgment: global AI infrastructure demand could outweigh a substantial setback in a single market.”
The evidence available at the time
“China, including Hong Kong, contributed $17.1 billion, or 13.1% of fiscal 2025 revenue by customer billing location, down from 16.9% a year earlier.”
The risk that mattered
“The valuation still required strong execution. A broad slowdown or margin deterioration could have caused meaningful losses.”
The lesson
A risk can be real without defining the entire business. Our analysis weighed China exposure against the scale of growth elsewhere, while recognizing that a demanding valuation left room for losses.
Source: Ace’s NVIDIA case study and research notes; NVIDIA FY2025 filing. Billing location does not establish where products were ultimately used.
What you’re subscribing to
A clearer view of the investment case.
One research newsletter delivered by email each month. Our approach brings together three things that help you evaluate an investment idea.
What’s changing?
The business developments, competitive advantages, and market expectations behind the investment case.
What supports it?
Primary sources and competitive intelligence that help explain the argument, with AI-assisted research supporting the process.
What could change the view?
The uncertainties, counterarguments, and developments to watch as the business and its valuation evolve.
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The research in practice
Explore the reasoning behind our investments.
Two retrospective case studies showing the questions we asked, the evidence we weighed, and the risks we considered.
NVIDIA · March 2025 thesis
How much did China really change the growth story?
What we examined: China exposure alongside global revenue growth, the Blackwell product ramp, and AI infrastructure spending.
What could go wrong: Export restrictions, slowing demand, or weaker margins could undermine a demanding valuation.
The historical outcome: The case study reports a $109.93 purchase on March 10, 2025. Shares closed at $220.78 on May 12, 2026—about a 100% price gain. The full study links the dated closing price and underlying filings.
Read the NVIDIA thesis, evidence, and outcome →Carvana · January 2023 thesis
Could a debt crisis conceal a stronger operating business?
What we examined: The ADESA acquisition, the logistics network, inventory economics, and the incentives of creditors to preserve the business.
What could go wrong: Liquidity pressure and a heavy debt burden made survival and execution central to the thesis.
The research lesson: Distinguish financial distress from the economics of the underlying operation—and examine whether a turnaround has a credible path.
Read the Carvana turnaround thesis →These are selected historical examples, not a complete performance record. NVIDIA’s stated result is share-price appreciation, excluding dividends, fees, and taxes; it is not a claim of a sale or portfolio return. Past results do not guarantee future outcomes.
About Ace Management Partners
We combine competitive intelligence experience, primary sources, proprietary research tools, and AI-assisted analysis to investigate businesses and their investment potential.
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